The Transition to the Second Phase of the Trump Plan to End the War on Gaza

Paper Summary:

This paper presents an analytical reading of the political and security challenges obstructing the transition to the second phase of U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to end the war on Gaza, which included restructuring the governance of the Strip through the disarmament of the factions, the formation of a local civil administration, and the imposition of a transitional international trusteeship.

The paper indicates that the absence of Palestinian consensus, the continuation of the division, and the refusal of the factions — foremost among them Hamas — to give up their weapons without clear guarantees, in addition to the fragility of the Israeli government and the difficulty of forming an internationally acceptable international force, are all factors obstructing the implementation of the plan.

The paper also reviews a number of possible scenarios for the transition to the second phase, but it favors the scenario of "stalling in the transitional phase," as a result of the complexities of the political and field reality, despite the American insistence on implementing the plan. The paper affirms that this stagnation could lead to serious humanitarian and social repercussions, and threatens the prospects for reconstruction and stability in Gaza. It concludes that the success of the plan requires a comprehensive political approach that recognizes Palestinian national rights and ensures the effective participation of all parties in building a just and sustainable political solution.