The Future of the Gaza Ceasefire Agreement

Introduction

This paper aims to present a comprehensive scholarly analysis of the political, security, and humanitarian dimensions related to the announcement of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip under American sponsorship, known in the media as the "Trump Plan," which came after two years of a wide-scale war that Israel termed the "war of annihilation." The study proceeds from the hypothesis that the agreement, although a first step toward ending military operations, does not constitute a comprehensive and final strategy for resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but rather represents a preliminary framework that lacks clarity regarding the mechanisms of implementation and the transitional phase for governing Gaza after the war.

The analysis is based on an assessment of the positions of the main parties: Palestinian, Israeli, and regional, with a focus on the strategic ambiguity surrounding the transitional phase, and the prospects for activating international solutions through the Security Council, particularly the draft resolution proposing the deployment of international stabilization forces and the establishment of a temporary transitional governing authority in Gaza, to ensure the safe and sustainable implementation of the agreement. This international orientation aims to bridge the gap between the temporary ceasefire and the transition to the phase of reconstruction and the management of civil affairs independently of the armed factions, in a way that enhances the prospects for the Strip's medium-term stability.